Keeping Capital Onshore: The Case for a Domestic Stablecoin in Türkiye

ABSTRACT 

Türkiye leads the world in stablecoin transaction volume relative to GDP: two-way stablecoin trading flows reached 4.3% of GDP (~USD 38 billion) in April 2023–March 2024, and cross-border stablecoin payments exceeded USD 63 billion in 2024. As the overwhelming majority of this activity flows to foreign issuers holding reserves in foreign sovereign debt instruments, it constitutes a structural capital outflow — a risk documented by the IMF in its 2025 Understanding Stablecoins report. Law No. 7518 (July 2024) and the Capital Markets Board’s March 2025 communiqués establish a licensing regime for crypto-asset service providers; secondary legislation specific to stablecoin issuance remains pending. This paper proposes a two-phase domestic stablecoin model: a fully collateralized, dollar-denominated stablecoin backed by domestic assets, followed by a lira-denominated instrument as macroeconomic stability improves. Domestic fintech ventures serve as primary issuers within an institutional framework provided by the CBRT, the CMB, Takasbank, and the Ministry of Treasury and Finance. Beyond stemming outflows, the model offers a strategic opportunity to attract foreign capital and serve as a regional payment hub.